Australian Transport Modelling & Policy Development

ABMARC has developed a number of models that enable us to predict technology uptake, emissions and fuel consumption in a number of transport sectors.

ABMARC’s light duty vehicle model

  • Predicts powertrain and segment uptake, including electric and fuel cell vehicles
  • Predicts fuel & energy consumption based on policy analysis and research into existing and upcoming technologies
  • Predicts vehicle emissions
  • Provides sales distributions in various segments (vehicle class and/or price)
  • Focuses on the next 20 years

The model can be used as a tool to quickly understand the impact of changing regulation on the Australian fleet, for example, to understand the change in emissions of a specific policy.

Inputs to ABMARC’s light duty model include:

  • Historical vehicle sales
  • New vehicle sales
  • Vehicle technologies (existing / upcoming)
  • Trends in buying behaviour
  • Population trends
  • Emissions, efficiency and other environmental regulations and policies in Australia, as well as in key OEM locations (such as the USA, EU and Japan).
  • Consumer buying behaviour & sales distributions in all light duty vehicle categories
  • Fuel and energy pricing
  • Others

ABMARC’s light duty vehicle model includes advanced driver assist system (ADAS) technologies. This enables clients to understand the uptake of these technologies, and assist in the development of policies surrounding the uptake of autonomous features on Australian vehicles.

Australian Transport Modelling & Policy Development - Maritime

ABMARC’s marine emissions model can predict CO2 emissions for a range of emissions reducing technologies and fuels to 2060.

The model considers a variety of fuels, efficiency technologies and activity levels.

In April 2018, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) agreed to reduce CO2 emissions from the shipping industry by 50% (compared to 2008). This stringent target will require significant work from the maritime industry.